- DOGE was in neutral market structure, but bears had some leverage.
- It could even fall to $0.09508.
- This prediction will be invalidated if it breaks above $0.10728.
Dogecoin’s (DOGE) Market structure has changed since 1/12/2015. The memecoin traded at $0.09846 as of press time. It is now warming up to test the support level $0.09508.
Noting that the support level above was a pullback zone, it could have been a zone where bulls could rest for a rally. However, DOGE’s price recovery could be undermined due to the declining trading volumes and weakening buying pressure based on technical indicators.
DOGE could fall as low as $0.09508 if bears keep momentum. That would be within the 23.6% or 38.2% Fib pockets levels. This would give traders an opportunity to shorten.
Can DOGE maintain a price rise above the 3 EMA Ribbons?
Source: DOGE/USDT TradingView
DOGE traded within the $0.05685 – $0.07434 range between mid-June and late October, with false breakouts occurring in between. A market slump in November prevented DOGE from making a convincing move to the upside from its range in October.
DOGE established strong support around 0.07434, and it was retested twice since the collapse of crypto markets. The support was used by DOGE bulls to launch a rally which has allowed DOGE to increase its value by over 40% and reached a peak of $0.11192 on December 5.
DOGE was able to regain support after another price drop. DOGE may break below the support according to technical indicators. The Relative Strength Index has retreated slightly from its upper range to a level slightly higher than the equilibrium point. This suggests that buying pressure may have eased.
The Exponential Moving Average Ribbon (EMA) has been acting as support for a while. Price action has been approaching this band, and a break below it would officially turn the DOGE’s market structure bearish.
Also, the On Balance Volume has fallen from 513 to 508 billion. This represents a drop in trading volume by about 5 billion over December 4-7. DOGE could therefore retest the support level at $0.09508 to break down.
Investors can therefore use $0.09508, $0.08995, $0.07998 and $0.07998 for short-selling targets, if bears control the market.
This prediction would be disproved if the intraday closing price is higher than the 50% Fib level ($0.10728).
While sentiment falls with development activity, long-term DOGE owners saw increases
Source: Santiment
DOGE’s weighted sentiment has continued to tread in the negative territory since mid-November. However, DOGE prices were not affected by the poor sentiment because of an increase in development activity.
It is interesting to note that the 365-day market-to-realized value ratio (MVRV), has been positive. This suggests that DOGE long-term owners have seen gains since 27 Nov.
The on-chain metrics have mixed signals which could indicate a neutral marketplace structure. It is, therefore, important to also consider the performance of BTC and memecoin’s socials before making any decisions.